Saskatchewan may play key role in tight election race

The longest federal election campaign in recent history is also shaping up to be one of the closest, even in the Conservative stronghold of Saskatchewan.

The latest polling put the Tories on top with 34 per cent support in the province, followed by the NDP at 24 per cent, and the Liberals at 18 per cent. But the same Mainstreet/Postmedia survey showed the NDP leading in Saskatoon, and a three-way race in Regina.

Some seats could change hands in Saskatchewan

Of the 14 seats in the province, five could possibly change from Conservative to NDP, says the Saskatchewan director of the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

“I definitely think the Tories will maintain their majority control of seats in the province,” said Simon Enoch. “But I think in the urban centres of Regina and Saskatoon, we may very well see a shift to the NDP.”

Tom Flanagan, a University of Calgary political scientist and former advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, says while there may be some changes in Saskatchewan, he expects the province will remain predominantly Conservative.

“I would expect the other parties to pick up at least a couple more seats,” Flanagan said. “Some urban seats in Regina and Saskatoon, I would expect to go for parties other than the Conservatives, but you never know.”

For the most part, things are “still up in the air” in Saskatchewan, says University of Regina political scientist Tom McIntosh. He said a few of the 13 Conservative-held seats in the province could change hands this election.

“It will still be a Conservative stronghold because they’ll probably have 10 of the 14 seats,” McIntosh said. “But that’s different than having 13 of the 14 seats.”

Tight races expected in some Regina and Saskatoon ridings

Some of the hardest-fought election battles in Saskatchewan will likely be waged in the province’s two largest cities. The new Regina-Lewvan riding, which emerged from the redrawing of boundaries in 2012, is one of the most hotly contested in the Queen City.

“The last polling I saw, there were still very large numbers of undecided in Regina-Lewvan, which was interesting and curious given that we are very deep into a very long campaign,” said McIntosh.

He says Saskatoon-University and Saskatoon-West could also see close results on election night as the NDP seeks to gain seats in those two urban ridings.

“It’s still not clear to me that any of those will change,” McIntosh said. “But I think all three are still in play and it will depend on a number of different factors – not only turnout, but how big the Liberal vote has grown.”

McIntosh and Enoch both expect longtime Liberal MP Ralph Goodale will win again in Regina’s Wascana riding. “I’d been surprised if somebody dislodges Ralph from his seat,” McIntosh said.

Saskatchewan could be crucial for the Conservatives

With the election this close, the Conservatives will need every seat they can get, Flanagan said. In 2011, the party secured victories in all but one of Saskatchewan’s 14 ridings.

“No poll yet has had them getting the percentage of votes that they did in the last election,” he said.

“It’s important for the party to dig out every seat that they can everywhere in the country because, with the poll numbers we’re seeing, it could be very close.”

Enoch says the Conservatives could afford to lose in some Saskatchewan ridings if the party picks up some of the 15 new seats in Ontario.

“I think it really depends on Ontario,” he said. “Holding onto seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be essential if they get routed in the Maritimes and don’t do well in Quebec and split in Ontario.”

If the Tories manage to secure a minority on Oct. 19, the stability of another Conservative government will hinge on the number of seats it holds, McIntosh said.

“If it is going to break Harper’s way, then the bigger minority he can secure, I think, makes the government more secure, and makes it harder for the opposition to gang up and defeat him right away,” he said.

Voter turnout could make a difference

Preliminary figures from Elections Canada show 3.6 million people voted at advance polls between Oct. 9 and 12. It’s estimated more than 95,000 voters cast ballots at advance polls in Saskatchewan – twice as many compared to 2011. Nearly 22,000 people cast their ballots early in Regina, and almost 30,000 in Saskatoon.

However, McIntosh says it’s difficult to gauge whether the final voter turnout will be higher in Saskatchewan compared to the last election.

“In one sense, I think we’ve given people a lot of time to engage and to think about the issues,” he said. “But it may also be that they’re worn out and tired, and some of them stay home.”

This election has seen a concerted effort to get university students to vote, as well as a push to get aboriginal people out to the polls, which could spell bad news for the Conservatives.

“Both those groups would tend not to vote Conservative,” said Enoch. “We know that the average Conservative voter tends to be older, white and male. So, I would assume that young people or indigenous people would vote for another candidate.”

If efforts to boost turnout of young and aboriginal voters were effective, “it would probably help the other parties at the expense of the Conservatives,” said Flanagan. “But, based on past performance, there’s no real evidence that those efforts will work.”