'Fill the gap': Sask. student creates tool to track rapid test results, account for unreported COVID-19 cases
Saskatchewan’s recorded COVID-19 cases only reflect the positive results confirmed through a PCR test. However, one epidemiologist says this practice leaves too many cases unreported.
The province now recommends people who are asymptomatic or those with mild symptoms opt for a rapid antigen test rather than a PCR test, in an effort to preserve testing capacity.
PCR tests are still recommended for those who are at greater risk of infection or experiencing severe symptoms.
Epidemiologist Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine says the province is creating a “big gap” in its data by not keeping a formal record of rapid antigen test results. He adds that gap is “irretrievable” once the time has passed, as it is impossible to backdate all those cases.
“Without incidents and prevalence that are accurate, we know nothing about disease and the spread of a disease,” Muhajarine said.
Muhajarine says case numbers are a “fundamental” indicator for epidemiology, helping understand the scale of the spread. They can also trigger further investigation into new variants and help people better understand the “societal-wide burden” of the disease.
In certain provinces like Ontario, Muhajarine estimates there are about two or three unreported cases of COVID-19 for every one positive PCR test result.
However, he says it is unclear exactly how many cases in Saskatchewan are unreported.
“We have lots of unknowns with rapid antigen tests, which is why we have little to no idea how much of an undercounting is going on at this point in time,” Muhajarine said.
This is where Noah Little comes in.
The University of Saskatchewan student created an online COVID-19 tracker at the start of the pandemic. It tracks case numbers, vaccinations and hospitalizations across Canada based on regions.
Since Little teamed up with Muhajarine, it now tracks self-reported rapid antigen test results.
“The whole idea of this is to fill the gap in official reporting,” Little said.
“It’s not to replace the official case counts, but it’s to really supplement that and maybe try to catch some of these cases that we’re missing with such limited testing.”
Since the launch of the new tracker, Little says more than 6,000 people have reported their rapid antigen test results, with about 2,000 coming from Saskatchewan.
The feature tracks positive, negative and invalid test results. All people have to do is enter their result, their age, the first three characters of their postal code and the date of the test.
“We collect very limited data just to be protected on that privacy front,” Little said.
Little says the biggest barrier is access to both the internet and rapid tests. However, if people get passed that, it will only take about 20 seconds to complete the entry.
“At the end of the day it’s more and more valuable the more and more people actually use it,” Little said.
New Brunswick recently started reporting rapid antigen test results on its government dashboard. Saskatchewan’s chief medical health office says that is something the government could look at doing in the future.
According to Dr. Saqib Shahah, the province’s cases that are confirmed through PCR testing represent about 20 to 30 per cent of all cases.
Shahab says at any given time two to three per cent of Saskatchewan’s population could have COVID-19, which is roughly 20,000 to 30,000 people.
As a result, Shahab says we can no longer rely on testing numbers and daily new cases as indicators.
“This is a very different phase of the pandemic. We will have to rely more on the lagging indicator of hospitalizations,” he said.
No matter how many extra resources are deployed to PCR testing sites, Shahab says it will not be able to keep up with demand.
He encourages those who test positive on a rapid antigen test to report it online.
“I think that could be an additional tool. Obviously it’s not going to be complete but it does give you a sense of what’s happening,” he said.
Muhajarine would like to see the government use an official tracking system for rapid tests.
Rapid antigen tests play an important role screening and self-monitoring, but Muhajarine says “we are asking it to do more that what we had built it to do.”
Ideally, he says rapid tests will only temporarily be used for diagnosis, as the province tries to limit the strain on testing capacity due to Omicron.
Once this wave passes, he would like to see PCR testing available for everyone.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
American millionaire Jonathan Lehrer denied bail after being charged with killing Canadian couple
American millionaire Jonathan Lehrer, one of two men charged in the killings of a Canadian couple in Dominica, has been denied bail.
LeBlanc says he plans to run in next election, under Trudeau's leadership
Cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc says he plans to run in the next election as a candidate under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership, amid questions about his rumoured interest in succeeding his longtime friend for the top job.
Sports columnist apologizes for 'oafish' comments directed at Caitlin Clark. The controversy isn’t over
A male columnist has apologized for a cringeworthy moment during former University of Iowa superstar and college basketball’s highest scorer Caitlin Clark’s first news conference as an Indiana Fever player.
U.S. vetoes a widely supported UN resolution backing full membership for Palestine
The United States has vetoed a widely backed UN resolution that would have paved the way for full United Nations membership for the state of Palestine.
Grandparent scam suspects had ties to Italian organized crime, police allege
A group of suspects that allegedly defrauded seniors across Ontario and other parts of Canada using a so-called emergency grandparent scam appear to have ties to 'Italian traditional organized crime,' according to an investigator involved in the OPP-led probe.
Health Canada to change sperm donor screening rules for men who have sex with men
Health Canada will change its longstanding policy restricting gay and bisexual men from donating to sperm banks in Canada, CTV News has learned. The federal health agency has adopted a revised directive removing the ban on gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men, effective May 8.
Prince Harry formally confirms he is now a U.S. resident
Prince Harry, the son of King Charles III and fifth in line to the British throne, has formally confirmed he is now a U.S. resident.
Cat found on Toronto Pearson airport runway 3 days after going missing
Kevin the cat has been reunited with his family after enduring a harrowing three-day ordeal while lost at Toronto Pearson International Airport earlier this week.
N.L. gardening store revives 19th century seed-packing machine
Technology from the 19th century has been brought out of retirement at a Newfoundland gardening store, as staff look for all the help they can get to fill orders during a busy season.