#JustCurious What does the percent chance of precipitation in the forecast really mean?
REGINA -- Most days when you tune into the forecast on CTV Regina, you could see a percentage chance of precipitation on a given day.
Environment Canada defines the chance of precipitation as the chance that measurable precipitation -- that’s a minimum 0.2 mm of rain or snow -- basically enough to make a small puddle will fall on any random point of the forecast region during the forecast period.
Meteorologist Bradlyn Oakes gives this example:
Let's use 30 per cent as an example.
First, it doesn't mean that 30 per cent of your area will be covered by precipitation or that 30 per cent of the time your area will see precipitation.
Instead, forecasters and meteorologists use a variety of data points to determine both a certainty and area of rainfall.
So, if I am 60 per cent certain that it is going to rain over 50 per cent of the area I'm forecasting, I would give it a 30 per cent chance of rain.
Interesting enough, in Canada meteorologists never give out a 50 per cent -- you have to choose a side either 40 per cent or 60 per cent. Is it more or less likely.
So if hear a 30 per cent chance of rain, it means your house has a 70 per cent chance it won't see the rain.
So next time you hear there’s a chance of rain in the forecast, you’ve got a better idea of what that really means.