More than 30,000 active COVID-19 cases in the Regina area, federal agency estimates

An approximate 30,476 Regina-area residents are currently infected with COVID-19, according to a federal agency’s projections.

The estimation by Defence Research and Development Canada is significantly higher than the 2,292 active cases in Regina the province reported on its COVID-19 Dashboard on Wednesday.

The agency, which is used by medical advisors for local risk assessment and related advice to commanders, developed the COVID-19 Point Prevalence Map. The prevalence of COVID-19 infections - which includes those who are exposed or infectious - is estimated using a model that considers epidemiological estimates like incubation and infectious periods, combined with open-source information like cases.

As of Jan. 11, the toolset's last update, an estimated 13.21 per cent of the 230,725 people in Regina were infected, for a total of 30,476 people.

The agency also estimates that 7.17 per cent of the 346,025 people in the Saskatoon area are infected, for a total of 24,810 people.

The model also projects the Regina area will see a prevalence of 23.4 per cent by Jan. 18, which means 53,989 people would be infected.

The model includes an area beyond Regina’s city limits, though the map does not indicate which other communities are counted.

With files from CTV News Saskatoon's Jonathan Charlton.