Risk of snow melt flooding in Sask. currently low: Water Security Agency

Near normal runoff potential (Green) is expected for most of the province. Below normal (Yellow) and well below normal (Red) is expected for the northeast and southwest regions of Saskatchewan. (Source: Water Security Agency)

As of Feb. 1, the chance of snow melt flooding in Saskatchewan is low, according to the Water Security Agency (WSA).

In the organization’s preliminary report for 2023, below normal to average snowpack levels have been measured across the province.

In southern Saskatchewan, the snowpack has been described as near or above normal. However, dry ground conditions are expected to affect runoff yields.

In the areas surrounding Swift Current and Outlook, this is expected to lead to little replenishment for surface water supplies.

Mid-season melts have depleted the snowpack in the Maple Creek area, while south of Cypress Hills and in the southeast, near normal runoff is expected.

The same results are expected for central Saskatchewan as well as the northwest. The far northeastern regions of the province are expected to see below normal runoff.

The WSA explained in its release that runoff results will heavily depend on the melt rate. This is due to depleted subsoil moisture being recorded across the province during the fall of 2022.

“With depleted subsoil moisture, a slow-melt will likely result in the bulk of the snowpack recharging the soil column. A rapid melt is likely needed to result in an improvement to surface water supplies,” the release explained.

“The current snowpack is likely insufficient to satisfy both. Without additional snowfall, surface water supply issues are likely to occur in southwestern Saskatchewan in 2023.”

The WSA’s initial spring runoff report is set to be released in early March.