Sask. voter intention, leader familiarity, key issues: Here's a recap of CTV's pre-election season polling

Exclusive polling data collected by CTV News in partnership with Insightrix outlines what preferences voters have, if they’re familiar with the party leaders and what issues matter most as Saskatchewan enters into the 2024 provincial election campaign.

Many want change

While the majority of Saskatchewan residents surveyed say they’re ready for a change, most don’t see that change happening in 2024.

As of September, 49 per cent of decided voters say they intend to support the Saskatchewan NDP, while 48 per cent of decided voters will support the incumbent Saskatchewan Party. Four per cent say they will support a different party come Oct. 28.

CTV News/Insightrix

The biggest question mark in terms of the campaign season will be wooing those who describe themselves as undecided.

According to the data, 33 per cent of those surveyed do not yet know who they’ll support come election day.

More undecided voters means that more Saskatchewan residents will be intently listening to what both major parties have to say as campaigning officially begins Oct. 1.

CTV News/Insightrix

Despite a strong desire for change, many don’t see a change in government on the horizon. Fifty per cent of those surveyed feel the Saskatchewan Party will still ultimately win while just 17 per cent feel the Saskatchewan NDP could form government.

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CTV News/Insightrix

The polling data shows the NDP maintains momentum in the province’s largest urban centres, with 62 per cent support among decided voters in Regina and 66 per cent in Saskatoon.

The incumbent Sask. Party maintains a hefty lead in the rurals, with northern areas polling at 63 per cent and 61 per cent in the south.

CTV News/Insightrix

The majority of surveyed voters aged 18 to 34 intend to support the New Democrats on election day while the inverse is true for the 55+ demographic. The two parties remain nearly tied among voters aged 33 to 54.

Moe leads in familiarity, negative impressions

The vast majority, 80 per cent, of those polled said they were familiar with Premier Scott Moe while 61 per cent said they were familiar with NDP Leader Carla Beck.

The two leaders are nearly tied in terms of positive impressions from would be voters – 31 per cent for Moe and 30 per cent for Beck.

The gap widens considerably in terms of negative impressions, with 54 per cent of those polled saying they had an overall negative opinion of the Sask. Party and its leader compared to 31 per cent for Beck and the NDP. That particular figure has dropped from 37 per cent in July.

The majority of respondents attributed their dislike of Moe to “general dislike and negative sentiments,” but more specific issues include dishonesty and lack of transparency, inadequate healthcare and education support, as well as divisive or partisan politics.

In terms of the Sask. NDP, most people reported a perceived lack of strength and effectiveness as the main reasons for holding a negative opinion. Again, the number of people attributing this as their number one issue have dropped since July from 19 to 11 per cent.

• How familiar are Sask. residents with the party leaders?

The largest block of voters view the best positive quality of either leader to be Moe’s leadership and advocacy for Saskatchewan and Beck’s compassionate and socially-focused leadership.

Just 12 per cent of those polled reported a neutral opinion of Moe while 26 per cent reported to be neutral towards Beck – down from Insightrix’s July poll of 39 per cent.

Healthcare, inflation, taxes top of mind

Surveyed voters from across the political spectrum ranked healthcare (63 per cent), inflation and rising costs (53 per cent), as well as taxes (38 per cent) as the most important issues to them.

Concerns over education as well as the economy and jobs remained tied at 34 per cent.

For a quarter of those polled, healthcare remained the most important issue. The issue remained in the top three for 75 per cent of NDP voters surveyed while two thirds of undecided voters identified it among their top three issues.

Undecided voters tended to be more interested in inflation as the top economic issue compared to taxation – although 38 per cent still identified it as a top issue.

For Sask. Party voters, economics is top of mind. A total of 22 per cent ranked inflation and rising costs as their top issue. Another 13 per cent said taxes was their number one concern. Overall, 60 per cent of Sask. Party voters ranked taxes in their top three as opposed to 16 per cent of Sask. NDP supporters.

Education is the top priority for 56 per cent of NDP voters compared to 19 per cent of Sask. Party voters and 26 per cent of undecideds.

A mere 15 per cent of NDP voters rank the economy and jobs as their top concern, compared to 44 per cent of Sask. Party supporters.

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Other outlier issues included crime, homelessness and housing as well as natural resources for Sask. Party voters.

On the NDP side, homelessness and affordable housing led the way with 26 per cent followed by health and addictions as well as climate change.

For undecideds, other top issues included the economy, crime and homelessness.

The sample size involves 806 adult residents, surveyed online through the Insightrix SaskWatch Research panel, a reflection of the province’s general population through age, gender and region. The research was conducted between Sept. 10 and Sept. 12, with an estimated margin of error of plus-minus 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll was conducted in partnership between CTV News and Insightrix Research.