'We can't let it slip': Sask. CMHO remaining cautious as COVID-19 cases trend downward

REGINA -

CLARIFICATION: The Government of Saskatchewan provided on data on Nov. 9, stating there were 78 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in October 2021. Dr. Saqib Shahab said those 78 deaths had been investigated and confirmed. In total, the province reported 156 COVID-19 deaths on its COVID-19 dashboard from Oct. 1-31.

Saskatchewan’s COVID-19 case numbers declined from September to October, but the province’s top doctor is encouraging continued caution while hospitalization rates catch up with the downward trend.

At the end of September, Dr. Saqib Shahab, Saskatchewan’s chief medical health officer, warned that the province was headed towards a fall and winter of “misery” due to rising COVID-19 rates.

But speaking Tuesday, Dr. Shahab provided a more optimistic, but still cautious message.

“Things are looking better for four to six weeks, although obviously we really have to stay our course. We can’t let it slip,” Shahab said. “I think the winter months are going to be critical.”

Dr. Shahab attributed the dip in overall COVID-19 case numbers to rising vaccination rates and changing behaviours among residents.

“There were strong recommendations from myself and from medical health officers throughout the province on reducing our contacts, being cautious when gathering,” he said. “We see how an increase in vaccine uptake and how a little bit of caution and consideration applied by all of us has made a difference.”

In the month of October, Saskatchewan recorded 10,018 COVID-19 cases, down 3,123 cases, or approximately 23 per cent, from September’s 13,141.

Unvaccinated individuals continue to make up the majority of cases, accounting for 6,790, or 67.8 per cent, last month.

While the province saw some relief from a lower case load, COVID-19 hospitalizations in both acute and intensive care rose slightly from September to October. There were 461 patients admitted to hospital for acute care, up from 449. Another 98 patients needed intensive care, rising from 83 last month.

Nearly 70 per cent of acute care patients and 85.5 per cent of ICU admissions were considered unvaccinated.

Dr. Shahab noted that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator for COVID-19 success, so Saskatchewan hospitals likely will not feel the benefits of the slowing case load for several weeks.

“We know that acute care has a two to three week lag and ICU may have a four to five week lag before it starts trending down as rapidly as case numbers,” he said.

The province also saw six more confirmed COVID-19 deaths in October than it did the month previous – up to 78 from 72.

Dr. Saqib Shahab said those 78 deaths had been studied and confirmed. He added that the data presented in the slides on Tuesday only reflect death investigations that have been completed, including vaccination status.

In total, the province reported 156 COVID-19 deaths on its COVID-19 dashboard from Oct. 1-31.

Dr. Shahab said once investigations are complete, the total number of deaths reported on the dashboard should align with the death numbers provided in the data Tuesday.

Dr. Shahab said the province’s COVID-19 trajectory is currently headed towards the “green,” referencing one of the more positive modelling scenarios shared three weeks ago.

The green scenario – including a 28 day period of reduced contacts and the administration of booster shots to the 60-plus age group – predicted a gradual decline in ICU hospitalizations through November, with the patient census returning to a “sustainable” level in the first quarter of 2022.

Dr. Shahab said updated modelling scenarios would be provided in the coming weeks.

While the COVID-19 situation is looking more positive for the holiday season, Dr. Shahab encouraged residents to remain cautious.

“I would still recommend, at this point, that if our numbers remain as low as they are, that we plan our gatherings very carefully. Small consistent groups of friends and family, ideally fully vaccinated,” he said.