'Fill the gap': Sask. student creates tool to track rapid test results, account for unreported COVID-19 cases
Saskatchewan’s recorded COVID-19 cases only reflect the positive results confirmed through a PCR test. However, one epidemiologist says this practice leaves too many cases unreported.
The province now recommends people who are asymptomatic or those with mild symptoms opt for a rapid antigen test rather than a PCR test, in an effort to preserve testing capacity.
PCR tests are still recommended for those who are at greater risk of infection or experiencing severe symptoms.
Epidemiologist Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine says the province is creating a “big gap” in its data by not keeping a formal record of rapid antigen test results. He adds that gap is “irretrievable” once the time has passed, as it is impossible to backdate all those cases.
“Without incidents and prevalence that are accurate, we know nothing about disease and the spread of a disease,” Muhajarine said.
Muhajarine says case numbers are a “fundamental” indicator for epidemiology, helping understand the scale of the spread. They can also trigger further investigation into new variants and help people better understand the “societal-wide burden” of the disease.
In certain provinces like Ontario, Muhajarine estimates there are about two or three unreported cases of COVID-19 for every one positive PCR test result.
However, he says it is unclear exactly how many cases in Saskatchewan are unreported.
“We have lots of unknowns with rapid antigen tests, which is why we have little to no idea how much of an undercounting is going on at this point in time,” Muhajarine said.
This is where Noah Little comes in.
The University of Saskatchewan student created an online COVID-19 tracker at the start of the pandemic. It tracks case numbers, vaccinations and hospitalizations across Canada based on regions.
Since Little teamed up with Muhajarine, it now tracks self-reported rapid antigen test results.
“The whole idea of this is to fill the gap in official reporting,” Little said.
“It’s not to replace the official case counts, but it’s to really supplement that and maybe try to catch some of these cases that we’re missing with such limited testing.”
Since the launch of the new tracker, Little says more than 6,000 people have reported their rapid antigen test results, with about 2,000 coming from Saskatchewan.
The feature tracks positive, negative and invalid test results. All people have to do is enter their result, their age, the first three characters of their postal code and the date of the test.
“We collect very limited data just to be protected on that privacy front,” Little said.
Little says the biggest barrier is access to both the internet and rapid tests. However, if people get passed that, it will only take about 20 seconds to complete the entry.
“At the end of the day it’s more and more valuable the more and more people actually use it,” Little said.
New Brunswick recently started reporting rapid antigen test results on its government dashboard. Saskatchewan’s chief medical health office says that is something the government could look at doing in the future.
According to Dr. Saqib Shahah, the province’s cases that are confirmed through PCR testing represent about 20 to 30 per cent of all cases.
Shahab says at any given time two to three per cent of Saskatchewan’s population could have COVID-19, which is roughly 20,000 to 30,000 people.
As a result, Shahab says we can no longer rely on testing numbers and daily new cases as indicators.
“This is a very different phase of the pandemic. We will have to rely more on the lagging indicator of hospitalizations,” he said.
No matter how many extra resources are deployed to PCR testing sites, Shahab says it will not be able to keep up with demand.
He encourages those who test positive on a rapid antigen test to report it online.
“I think that could be an additional tool. Obviously it’s not going to be complete but it does give you a sense of what’s happening,” he said.
Muhajarine would like to see the government use an official tracking system for rapid tests.
Rapid antigen tests play an important role screening and self-monitoring, but Muhajarine says “we are asking it to do more that what we had built it to do.”
Ideally, he says rapid tests will only temporarily be used for diagnosis, as the province tries to limit the strain on testing capacity due to Omicron.
Once this wave passes, he would like to see PCR testing available for everyone.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'A step forward': New screening criteria for sperm donors takes effect
Canadians looking to grow their families with the assistance of sperm or egg donations should soon have more options for donors as the federal health agency does away with longstanding restrictions criticized as discriminatory.
What is whooping cough and should Canadians be concerned as Europe declares outbreak?
There is currently a whooping cough epidemic in Europe, with 10 times as many cases compared to the previous two years. While an outbreak has not been declared nationwide in Canada, whooping cough is regularly detected in the country.
Ontario Provincial Police arrest 64 suspects in child sexual exploitation investigation
Ontario Provincial Police say 64 suspects are facing a combined 348 charges in connection with a series of child sexual exploitation investigations that spanned the province.
Ippei Mizuhara, ex-interpreter for baseball star Shohei Ohtani, pleads guilty in sports betting case
The former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud Wednesday in a sports betting case where prosecutors allege he stole US$16 million from the Japanese baseball player to pay off debts.
Steve Albini, legendary producer for Nirvana, the Pixies and an alternative rock pioneer, dies at 61
Steve Albini, an alternative rock pioneer and legendary producer who shaped the musical landscape through his work with Nirvana, the Pixies, PJ Harvey and more, has died. He was 61.
Pfizer agrees to settle more than 10K lawsuits over Zantac cancer risk: Bloomberg News
Pfizer has agreed to settle more than 10,000 lawsuits about cancer risks related to the now discontinued heartburn drug Zantac, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the deal.
U.S. presidential candidate RFK Jr. had a brain worm, has recovered, campaign says
Independent U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had a parasite in his head more than a decade ago, but has fully recovered, his campaign said, after the New York Times reported about the ailment.
Watch fighter jet pilots pummel fake enemy ship off coast of Philippines
The United States and Philippines held annual joint-training drills just off the Southeast Asian nation’s western coast on Wednesday. Military forces sunk a 'mock' enemy warship – the BRP Lake Caliraya, which was a decommissioned tanker made in China.
'Summer of discontent': Federal unions vow to fight new 3-day a week office mandate
Federal unions are launching legal challenges and encouraging public sector workers to file "tens of thousands" of grievances over the new mandate requiring federal workers to return to the office at least three days a week in the fall.