Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says

NDP Leader Carla Beck and Sask Party Leader Scott Moe speaking to reporters after the leaders debate on Oct. 16, 2024. (David Prisciak/CTV News)

The NDP appears to have some momentum in Saskatchewan’s provincial election campaign with less than a week until votes are tallied.

In a new exclusive poll from CTV News in partnership with Insightrix Research, the NDP appears to have pulled ahead slightly among decided voters.

Surveyed between Oct. 18 and 20, 50 per cent of voters say they’ll cast their ballots for the NDP, compared to 45 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party, breaking a near tie shown in previous polling.

“They're still very, very close and they're still within that margin of error,” said Insightrix Research Director Lang McGilp. “But we are seeing a slight shift that's taken place since about a month ago right before the election was called to right now, where we've got 50 per cent of people saying that they would vote for the NDP and 45 for Sask. Party.”

Decided voters as of Oct. 20, 2024. (CTV News/Insightrix)

The number of undecided voters has significantly decreased from the previous CTV News/Insightrix poll in September, from 33 per cent to 21 per cent.

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“People's opinions can fluctuate and change a little bit in terms of what they're going to do,” McGilp said. “So the closer we can get [polling] to an event like this, I think the better.”

By region, the Saskatchewan Party continues to dominate rural areas while the NDP is holding a lead in Saskatoon and Regina.

Decided voters by region as of Oct. 20, 2024. (CTV News/Insightrix)

“Those rural areas will be ones where there is a need for a bit of an uphill battle for the NDP to make some ground,” McGilp said.

Younger demographics tend to favour the NDP, but the 55+ voter block is led by the incumbent at 49 per cent Sask. Party and 46 per cent NDP.

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Seventy-eight per cent of respondents say they absolutely intend to vote in the provincial election, with another 12 per cent saying it’s very likely they’ll enter a polling booth.

Just nine per cent said they either weren’t sure or had no intention to vote.

Voter intent. (CTV News/Insightrix)

“This may translate into an increased voter turnout compared to before,” McGilp said. “I don't expect it will be this high, but, I think it speaks to the level of engagement that we're seeing this go around.”

In the 2020 provincial election, 52.9 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots, down from 53.5 per cent in 2016. Voter turnout has not surpassed 60 per cent in Saskatchewan since 2007, when the Sask. Party was first elected.

Of those over 55, 86 per cent expressed their intention to vote, with younger age demographics polling in the low 70 per cents.

Voter intention is higher in the cities of Regina and Saskatoon compared to other regions, something McGilp attributes to logistics.

“Those of us who live in a larger center, we've got the convenience of having a polling station that could be even within walking distance or a very short drive,” McGilp said. “Whereas those in other parts of the province are going to have to get into the vehicle, and go into town to make that vote.”

Appetite for change?

When asked if they believe it’s time for change, 55 per cent of respondents said yes, unchanged from the September polling.

“Whether that means they will actually vote for change, we'll need to wait and see what happens,” McGilp said.

Broken down by demographic, the appetite for change also exists in rural Saskatchewan.

“Some could say is that that's not necessarily directly saying the NDP would be the one that they would choose for,” McGilp said. “Obviously there's other parties that I think appealed to some rural voters on that side too.”

Appetite for change is felt across the province but mainly in the major cities. (CTV News/Insightrix)

Other parties polled the highest in the southern rural region at seven per cent, an increase in support largely taken from the Sask. Party compared to a month ago.

“That also comprises a number of different, smaller parties. It's not all just for one party,” McGilp said.

Most voters still predict the Saskatchewan Party will win the election, but the number of people who thought the NDP could win jumped from 17 per cent to 20 per cent.

Voter intent. (CTV News/Insightrix)

“Although this appears in our data like there's an appetite for change, I think people aren't necessarily thinking at this moment that it's enough to make the change occur,” McGilp said, crediting the Sask. Party’s long run as the governing party.

“Now, obviously, the power comes in everyone placing their vote and getting everything counted next week,” McGilp added.

Saskatchewan’s voting week begins Tuesday, with polls open for many voters every day from Oct. 22 to Oct. 28 except Sunday, Oct. 27.

The unweighted sample size involved 802 adult residents, surveyed online through the Insightrix SaskWatch Research panel, a reflection of the province’s general population through age, gender and region.

The research was conducted between Oct. 18 and 20, with an estimated margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll was conducted in partnership between CTV News and Insightrix Research.