'Interpret with caution': How doctors say Sask. can avoid a fifth COVID-19 wave

REGINA -

As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations trend downwards, the Saskatchewan Health Authority’s (SHA) interim senior medical health officer is warning the public to “interpret it with caution.”

Dr. Cory Neudorf says the health-care system is still under pressure, although COVID-19 cases are down from a few weeks ago and have now seemingly plateaued.

“The only way to make sure that this is sustained is for cases to come down to a very, very low level in this province,” Neudorf said.

“If we enter the winter with the rates we’re seeing right now, it sets the stage for a fifth wave very quickly.”

New daily cases need to reach low double digits before Christmas if Saskatchewan wants to avoid a fifth wave, Neudorf says, adding low numbers would signal that things are stabilizing.

New cases are not the only factor taken into consideration, Neudorf says. Test positivity, wastewater analysis and hospitalizations are also monitored.

Dr. Joseph Blondeau, head of clinical microbiology at the Royal University Hospital, says there are concerns with a decrease in testing, which could mean there are more COVID-positive people than new cases suggest.

“Do (lower case numbers) mean there are fewer people out there with exposures or are people choosing not to get tested,” Blondeau said.

Hospitalizations have slowly decreased in the last two weeks, falling from 167 to 133 inpatients. However, ICU admissions have remained stagnant, hovering around 50 patients needing intensive care.

Blondeau says as new cases drop, the expectation is hospitalizations and ICU admissions will eventually do the same.

“Where’s that threshold at which the numbers return to normal? I don’t think we know that yet. I think it’s a wait-and-see scenario,” Blondeau said.

“The ICU numbers may not go down as quickly because some folks in the ICU may require being there for a longer period of time.”

In order to prevent resurgence, Neudorf says the province needs to maintain public health restrictions, while the public limits gathering sizes and out-of-town trips. If people relax measures prematurely, he says cases can quickly rebound back to high rates.

As many people are approaching the six-month mark since receiving their second vaccination, Neudorf says “waning immunity” could be a factor moving forward.

Studies suggest that COVID-19 immunity can start to wane, especially in seniors and people with severe medical conditions, five to six months after becoming fully vaccinated. Neudorf says booster doses will play a role in counteracting that.

“We’re not sure how much that waning immunity is going to contribute to that susceptibility for people in the near future,” Neudorf said.

If immunity seriously wanes, Neudorf says there could be a “plateauing and slow decrease” in cases before another spike in January and February. However, if immunity does not wane as severely, cases will likely drop before slowly increasing back to current levels after the winter holidays.

“With continued vigilance and we actually see cases drop more quickly between now and Christmas, we can avoid that fifth spike altogether,” he said.

However, to avoid any future waves, Neudorf says Saskatchewan’s vaccination rates need to increase.

Saskatchewan has the lowest vaccination rates in the country, with 80 per cent of eligible residents fully vaccinated and 86 per cent with their first dose.

“Right now, we need to get at least over 90 per cent of the eligible population and we’re not there yet,” he said.

“That’s hundreds of thousands of people who are still unimmunized and fully susceptible to this virus. That’s a huge reservoir for this virus to take advantage of.”

On top of that, Neudorf says there are more than 100,000 kids under the age of 12 who are not eligible to be vaccinated yet. He says the entire population needs to be included when talking about herd immunity.

“If we can get over 90 per cent coverage for that entire population, that’s when we can start being more reassured that we’ll be able to avoid subsequent waves,” Neudorf said.