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Sask. home sales and prices predicted to decline in 2023, bounce back in 2024: TD report

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Saskatchewan home sales and prices are forecast to dip in 2023, but rebound in 2024, according to a recent market outlook from TD Economics.

Economist Rishi Sondhi predicts Saskatchewan will see a -14 per cent drop in sales in 2023. Sales are then expected to grow by 10 per cent in 2024, which is the lowest projected growth among Canadian provinces for the year.

TD predicts British Columbia will have the largest swings in home sales over the next two years, with a -22.8 per cent decline forecasted in 2023 and a 24.8 per cent increase in 2024. The outlook forecasts Manitoba to have the lowest decline in sales in 2023 (-8.3 per cent).

Average home prices are also forecast to dip -6.9 per cent in 2023, with a 3.7 per cent bounce back in 2024.

The outlook notes a “steep” decline of average prices predicted across Canada is expected to be lessened in the Prairies and Newfoundland and Labrador due to “comparatively decent affordability conditions.”

Relatively affordable prices are predicted to contribute to a “mild outperformance” in price growth in 2024 in those regions.

Saskatchewan has the highest average home price growth (3.7 per cent) forecast for 2024 provincially, along with Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador tied at 3.2 per cent.

The benchmark price of a residential home in Saskatchewan as of December 2022 was $316,100, up 0.3 per cent year-over-year, according to statistics from the Saskatchewan Realtors Association.

Home prices are expected to drop the most in Nova Scotia in 2023 (-12.2 per cent), while TD predicts Newfoundland and Labrador will see the least amount of change (-1.0 per cent).

Nationally, TD is predicting 2023 will see the weakest year of sales since 2001. Sales are forecast to decline by -17.5 per cent in 2023, with 18.9 per cent growth expected in 2024.

“Calling a bottom in housing is notoriously difficult. That said, with our forecast tracking well, we’re retaining our near year-long call that Canadian home sales will bottom sometime in early 2023,” Sondhi said in the report.

If activity bottoms out, the report notes sales levels are still expected to remain depressed due to the poorest affordability level since the late 80s and early 90s.

Average home prices are also expected to fall 10.7 per cent across the country in 2023.

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